What Causes Inflation?
Macroeconomic objectives
What you will learn
- Stronger demand can raise prices by pressing against capacity; higher production costs can raise prices while reducing output.
- Evaluate the costs of inflation and affected groups
Essential definitions
- Demand-pull inflation
- Inflationary pressure arising when aggregate demand grows relative to available supply.
- Cost-push inflation
- Inflationary pressure arising from higher production costs or reduced aggregate supply.
- Real income
- Nominal income adjusted for the general price level.
Demand pulls prices up
Demand-pull inflation begins with stronger aggregate spending. Suppose households and firms buy more. AD shifts right; firms increase output and hiring while resources are available. As workers and machines become scarce, extra production costs more and prices rise more strongly.
Read the diagram with the price level vertically and real GDP horizontally. AD1 meets SRAS at E1. Shift AD to AD2 and find E2 on unchanged SRAS. Project each intersection to both axes. The effect on output versus prices depends on the initial spare capacity, so explain that position before judging the shift.
Costs push prices up
Cost-push inflation begins with higher unit costs, such as imported fuel becoming dearer. Firms can profitably supply less at each price level, so SRAS shifts left. Its new intersection with unchanged AD has higher prices and lower output. This is different from demand-pull pressure, where output initially rises.
A single shift shows a price-level comparison. Continuing inflation needs further cost or demand pressure, or adjustments in wages and expectations that keep raising costs. If workers seek compensation for expected inflation and firms pass higher wages into prices, an initial shock can spread. The strength of this process depends on bargaining and productivity.
Explain who gains and loses
Unexpected inflation reduces the purchasing power of fixed money incomes and savings. With a fixed nominal debt, borrowers may repay in money worth less, at lenders' expense. Variable-rate contracts or anticipated inflation can alter that result. To value an unchanged money income at a new price index, divide it by that index and multiply by 100.
Unpredictable prices make planning and comparison harder; repricing also costs firms time and money. Faster domestic inflation can weaken export competitiveness if exchange rates do not offset it. Demand restraint may curb inflation but cost jobs, especially after a supply shock. Evaluate cause, predictability, duration and distribution instead of treating every price increase alike.
Hypothetical purchasing power
- A fixed pension is 20,000 currency units and the price level rises 5%.
- Its purchasing power in previous-year prices becomes 20,000 ÷ 1.05 ≈ 19,047.62.
The pension’s real purchasing power falls about 4.76%, despite unchanged nominal income.
Aggregate demand: expansion and contraction
AD: P = 200 − 0.8Y. SRAS: P = 20 + 0.8Y. E2: Y=112.5, P=110.
Higher autonomous spending raises AD. With upward-sloping SRAS, firms expand output as the price level rises relative to sticky input costs. A fall in AD reverses this short-run result.
How to draw it and model assumptions
- Price level (index) vertically and real GDP (index) horizontally.
- Label AD₁, AD₂ and SRAS.
- Project E1 and E2 to both axes and show the AD shift with an arrow.
Hypothetical linear AD and SRAS; input prices and productive capacity fixed in the short run. A shift is a change in spending at each price level.
Cost shocks, inflation and deflation
AD: P = 180 − 0.8Y. SRAS: P = 40 + 0.8Y. E2: Y=87.5, P=110.
A rise in unit production costs shifts SRAS up/left: the price level rises while real output falls. Productivity growth or cheaper inputs shifts SRAS down/right, allowing lower prices and more output.
How to draw it and model assumptions
- Hold AD fixed.
- Move SRAS upward for higher unit costs or downward for lower costs.
- Mark initial E1 and new E2, then compare the directions of the price level and real GDP.
AD and potential output held fixed for the initial cost shock. One price-level increase is not by itself permanently continuing inflation.
Apply and evaluate
- Unanticipated inflation has stronger redistribution effects than inflation fully incorporated into contracts.
- The best policy response depends on whether inflation originates mainly in excess demand or supply disruption.
Common misconceptions
- Every worker does not automatically lose real income during inflation; nominal incomes may adjust differently.
- A one-off SRAS shift alone does not establish an indefinitely sustained inflation rate.
Knowledge check
Why can unexpected inflation benefit a fixed-rate borrower?
Real-world application
An inflation rate is a change, not a price level
16 November 2022: The UK CPI rose 11.1% over the twelve months to October 2022, compared with 10.1% over the twelve months to September.
These are rates over overlapping twelve-month windows. A subsequent fall in the inflation rate would mean slower average price increases, not necessarily falling prices. Judge the costs alongside wages, household expenditure patterns and employment conditions.
ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2022 ↗Historical evidence checked 9 October 2026. The model interpretation is an original teaching application.
What to remember
Stronger demand can raise prices by pressing against capacity; higher production costs can raise prices while reducing output. Their different causes create different policy trade-offs.
Completion is your own reflection on learning, not a test score. Syllabus references: 3.3.12, 3.3.13.
Lessons in this section
- What Are Macroeconomic Objectives?
- What Is Economic Growth?
- How Does Growth Affect Living Standards?
- How Is Unemployment Measured?
- Why Are People Unemployed?
- What Do Inflation and the CPI Measure?
- What Causes Inflation?
- Why Can Falling Prices Be a Problem?
- How Is a Weighted Price Index Calculated? · HL
- How Can We Assess Government Debt? · HL
- What Do Phillips Curves Show? · HL
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